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Ascot :

Oisin switched to Ascot tomorrow.
Last 3 years Murphy / Suroor at Ascot.
6 runs, 4 wins.

One tomorrow : 1.10 Ascot - Victory Gold

Opened @ 5/2 pushed out to 3/1 but still seems very short.
Movement based on the Gosden horse being backed from 5/1 into 11/4 within 10/15 mins of prices opening on 365.

Considering they are pretty much all making debut, does the early money show intent here.

Over at Haydock, the top rated combo is Haggas/Fallon with a 39% Strike rate over the last 3 years. Interestingly they only team up for one ride, even though haggas runs two there ..

3.40 Haydock - Lake Forest
Been running in group races, drops down to listed here, installed as favorite @ around 15/8 as I write this.

Haggas other runner at the track is much bigger odds, and just so happens to be ridden by the top rider at the track over the last 3 years in terms of win% (min 5 rides) Doughty, with 9 from 32 .. a 32% Strike rate.

2.30 Haydock - Keep It Classic
Opened at 12/1 on 365 as I type this.

At Lingfield, the usual suspects top the table, for jockeys, Crouch, Moore, Cosgrave and Marquand. For the trainers, Haggas and Appleby lead the way.

Two particularly good combo's show up too ..

Crouch & Beckett, are 4 wins from 6 runs over the past 3 years and they team up with :

1.58 Lingfield - Bay Of Brilliance
2.40 Lingfield - Dash Of Azure

and Marquand & Haggas 3 from 5. team up with :

1.58 Lingfield - Maltese Cross
3.50 Lingfield - Hardys Hero

That 1.58 looks particularly difficult with all the big boys bringing out the nice types for the derby trial.

Dash of Azure did not look out of place in a listed event last time out so should be competitive in this one the 9/2 on offer seems reasonable.

Hardys Hero likewise seems like one with more to come, and the early market agrees with that one opening at 6/4.

Finally at Nottingham, Ed Bethell seems to be the one to follow, with stats of 10 from 27 over the last 3 years at the track.

He has three running tomorrow :

2.50 Nottingham - Inferno @ 5/1

3.25 Nottingham - Orangesandlemons @ 13/2
Last time seen at track and trip won a class 2 0-90 race
Price seems fair.

4.35 Nottingham - Oasis Cover @ 13/2
I suspect there is more to come from this one.

Notebook horses for tomorrow.

I suspect the leadenhall race is another prep for york .. but who knows. :

3.25 Nottingham : Leadenhall

notebook from 29/4 :

“had won this race in 2025, but was coming here 3lbs higher than last year, had taken a similar path to this race than the prior year also with two runs at Redcar before coming to Pontefract.

The horse traveled through the race towards the rear, coming into the turn around 7 lengths down, pushed along for the final 2-3 furlongs and responded to pressure , staying on well to the line to get within a couple of lengths of the winner.

The horse likely has a couple of options going forward, last year it ran in a valuable (13k class 4) handicap at york in mid June from a mark of 78. That may well be the target race, before that it is likely going to turn up at Redcar in May - a race it has visited for the last two years running. A run down the field in that one should see the horse get into the York race 4 - 5lbs below last years mark with a good chance of bringing home a nice prize. The extra furlong will suit.

Failing that the horse also has a good record at Haydock, and if the York idea does not work out, i wouldn't be surprised to see this one go to Haydock in mid August for a crack at the class 4 handicap they have on that card (has won twice before over that track and trip about that time of year)”

4:40 Ascot Cajetan :

Notebook race : 13 Apr
19:00 Newcastle : HANDICAP (3) Distance : 6f Prize : £7,956
Rated : (0-95) Age : 4yo+

Cajetan seemed to somewhat bounce back to form after a long spell of showing little. A three time winner in 2024, the last two from marks of 80 and 82, went into ‘25 looking like a decent prospect, but the form suddenly disappeared and from a mark of 92 he was very uncompetitive. Switched to Ruth Carr mid June of 25 and was not seem until Feb 26, when getting to within a length of the win at Wolvs in a 0-85 from a mark of 82.

Had shown a preference for a more galloping track .. and when put into a 0-80 at Newcastle in march was sent off fav, however finished 10th of 11, albeit only 4. Lengths off the eventual winner that day. Did nothing at Southwell, and then last time out back at Newcastle in a 0-95 from a mark of 77 in first time blinkers was sent off at 40/1 and stayed on strongly closing all the way to the line.

Remains to be seen if this is a turnaround in fortunes, but from a mark of 77 if we stick to a galloping track there is no reason why we cannot find enough to run well if the right race is found for him.