Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Sunday.
Not too much catching my eye on Sunday, but bookies have priced up at Thirsk already, and there are one or two outsiders worth each way bets .. so getting this email out early and going to have a day of rest.
We have had a cracking few days with wins on friday of 12/1, 10/1 and 5/1 from 6 selections. Now is not the time to double stakes. Just keep doing your thing, play 1pt win bets or 0.5pt e/w bets and let the value we get do its thing.
Remember these horses are bigger prices as they have a lower chance of winning. We wont win every day, nor will we win every week … but monthly … I hope we stand a chance of doing better than most.
Good luck if you play along.
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Positive Profile Horses
4.45 Thirsk - An open looking 5f class 4 sprint race. 18 runners set to go to post.
I had narrowed down to two in the race after an initial look, and then I had settled on one, but know if the other runs well, i will kick myself. So having a bet on both in here.
4.45 Thirsk - Copper Knight @ 25/1 - 5 places
This was the horse I initially looked at, won a class 4 at Redcar from a mark of 74 back in September (Average OR in that race was 80) , bumped into a class 3 at York in October (AVG 83) going down 6l that day.
Put away for the winter and then came back out with a cracking run in a class 2 at Ripon on seasonal debut going down less than a length in a 0-90 sprint (AVG 81).
Next race In may - a class 4 (AVG 79) did well to win from a mark of 79.
Bumped again last time out into a class 2 (AVG 90) and was simply outclassed that day.
Back down into a class 4 here (AVG 80) this will once again be exactly his level. Gets a 7lb claimer in the saddle to help out (Has won on the horse before)
This old timer is as good as ever at this grade and should be thereabouts at the line. Price of 25’s is too big. Worth a swing at those odds.
The one I ended up looking at on the back of this profiling task was
4.45 Thirsk - Muker @ 33/1 - 5 places.
Horse has run 7 times at the track and has two wins and 4 places, todays jockey has won on the horse 5 times from 19 rides. Had two runs at the track this time last year, a win from a mark of 82 and a close up 3rd beaten less than a length from a mark of 84.
Showed little last time out over track and trip and given a 3lb break for that run. has shown the occasional poor run in the past in his profile and has usually bounced right back to form immediately after.
Going here off 79 at a track he likes for a jockey that gets him. 33/1 seems big to me.
Taking a shot in the dark with this one and hoping he can bounce back on Sunday.
5.45 Thirsk - Eternal Sunshine @ 19.0 - 4 places
Another horse that profiles well here.
Hose is three from three over course and distance.
Ran up a three timer last Aug/Sept in two class 3’s and a Class 2. OR rose from 74 to 88 after those wins.
Since been running down the field in bigger handicaps. Handicapper finally starting to lower her mark, down 3lbs now back to 85 tomorrow. Probably still a little high to be involved here, but if they take off the brakes and decide to go for it, no reason why this one could not run a big race at a big price.
The ground is ideal, the 6f is the best trip for her, jockey has ridden the horse 11 times and has 3 wins and 6 places.
The biggest danger is that they try and run this one down the field in order to target the same races as last year .. could easily drop another 9lbs between now and the end of August if they need her to .. especially now the Official Handicappers are starting to let go on her a little.
It is Goldie though, so who knows what we get.
You pays your money and you takes your chance. and at 18/1 its worth an e/w punt i think.
Speed Figure Picks
16:45 Thirsk - American Bay @ 12/1 e/w 5 places