Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Saturday.
Jockey/Trainer Stats
What a wonderful day we have had today :
The first two from the speed figure bets went in.
Advised at 10/1 and 5/1. Cannot ask for more than that.
Well in profit now. I will start officially tracking from the 1st of the new month.
Make hay while the sun shines. Once the rain hits, the form will become much more unpredictable and results will tail off for a while.
Quite a few stats to mention having looked through the cards in much more detail. I will not be playing most of them, but having done the research, thought some were worth a mention for those who may be interested.
5.08 Beverley - Copper and Five @ 6.5 - 4 places
When Joanna Mason / Ruth Carr combine at Beverley over the last two years they have 8 runs and 4 wins and 6 places.
At 10 years old Copper and Five is past his best now, but the last two runs he has been runner up over course and distance here, beaten 1.5 lengths two runs ago and going down less than a length last time out.
Last win was also at this track and trip back in May of last year from a mark of 55.
The horse is fit and well, he will be trying, he has his conditions and we will likely get an each way price.
The reason we get that each way price is the one at the top of the card, Penny Ghent, a 6yo mare was a 26 race maiden before hacking up 10 days ago in a Ripon handicap by 5.5l at 28/1. (Trainer said she benefitted from an uncontested lead that day) Followed that up a couple of days ago with an easy looking win here at track and trip showing that win was no fluke. That one is now up 15lbs on the back of those two wins. They saying goes, don’t bet against a mare in form .. but she may be vulnerable having her third run inside two weeks and going up 15lbs in the process.
We can only hope she is not still on fire and take the chance of the each way paying out money back on ours if that one remains in form.
Over at catterick, Mark Prescott (sir) has a 50% strike rate over the last 2 years - 8 runs, 4 wins, 6 places. and Luke Morris had a 50% strike rate over the last 2 years. 10 runs, 5 wins, 6 places.
They are three from three when teaming up here at the track, and the stars align once more on Saturday. Prescott only has one runner on Saturday, Morris rides.
17:17 Catterick - Favorite Friend @ 5.5 win bet
A 3yo with not much form to speak of to date. So it will likely go off fav and hose up knowing Prescott.
Found a lingfield turf stat that cannot be overlooked, however the race is one of those that seems impossible to have a bet on as it is a 2yo maiden race with most of the runners making debut.
19:42 Lingfield - Wadima
Botti / Ghiani over the last two years when they combine at Lingfield on the turf, they are 4 from 4.
Could be anything, I have no idea. Mentioning the stat, but will not be playing myself.
Oisin Murphy will be at Chester on Saturday. He has a few rides for Balding , however he has a much better strike rate when riding for hugo Palmer. In the last two years at the track they have teamed up for 7 rides, with 4 of those winning (57%)
He has two rides for Palmer on the card.
3.30 Chester - Roman Dragon.
Won last time out at Chester in a 5f class 2 race from a mark of 95.
The horse has a fantastic record at the track with 8 wins from 21 runs. But the horse has never won at 7f. +5lbs and up to 7f I think this one is here to try and run for a drop in OR so that it can come back and race in August in a race he won last year back over 6f at Chester. I suspect a run down the field in this one.
The other ride he picks up is with Rubys Angel in the 4.05 Chester. Last time out was first time in a proper handicap race beaten into second that day by one who reopposes this time out Cherry Baker. gets a 4lb pull for that, and I do not think it will be enough. I fancy Cherry baker to hold Ruby off again and so I will not be having a crack on either of Oisin’s rides for Palmer despite the stats telling me that I should.
Drops In Class
I looked at a LOT of horses today to try and find something that would qualify for a class dropper with a chance of winning.
Ended up on this one :
4.00 Beverley - Goldmoyne @ 8/1 - 3 places.
Went on an incredible run starting in Dec of 25. Running from a mark of just 48.
6 wins, 2 seconds and 3 thirds. Running through class 6, class 5’s and winning a class 4 before the run came to an end at a mark of 88.
When asked to compete in a class 2 at Musselburgh in April. Only went down 1 length that day splitting horses rated 102 and 103.
Beaten twice since in class 3 races seeming to weaken at the tail end of his race.
Drop back in grade here tomorrow into a class 4 from a mark of 87. Probably worth an each way bet at the price. Willhill is offering 4 places so may be worth waiting to see what price they open at.
No reason on paper why the horse should not be competitive against these, may be due a break, but will take a chance here that the horse is just better than these.
Speed Figure Picks
15:35 - Catterick - Captain Robert @ 3.5 win
18:12 - Lingfield - Haveagobeau @ 9.0 3 places
18:42 - Lingfield - Red Hat Eagle @ 10.0 (3 places on some books)
One last thing, if you enjoy the email, please forward it to someone, mention it to someone, retweet one of our tweets, share the website link. Time to grow this thing. Lets get a fair number of people involved and see what we can build.