Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Monday.
Passed on quite a few for tomorrow, Runninsonofagun in the 3.45 Ayr, I liked a lot, won a 0-65, the beaten less than a length in a 0-75, back into a 0-65 tomorrow. Price of less than 2/1 is far too low though. Empirical in this race could also be anything and will be a big danger, best to leave alone, could not get a read.
2.45 Ayr, Tap dancer showed up well on the numbers, but massively down in trip did not make sense, a front runner in distance events may not necessarily get that same front running position against sprinters, so that was a pass.
3.15 Ayr, I looked into abduction, but the hold up profile in a projected slow race in a small field means the horse may not get the extended build of speed that the horse likes, it will turn into a sprint and I don’t think the horse has the pace to just flip a switch and go past them, needs more of a build up of pace and a sustained run.
In the 6.05 - I looked into Not Me, but again this one often has slow starts and is “keep” more often than not, combine this with the wide draw and the horse will be fighting for position .. Modern times looks to be in a better position in here
We are going to have a go with two for tomorrow, both at Windsor.
Drops In Class
7.28 Windsor - Brosay @ 16/1 4 places e/w
At first look the form lines look horrible … 0606500 ←- most recent
Looking deeper however, beaten lengths.
Beaten 3.5 lengths in a 0-105 class 2 at Ascot
Beaten 2.9l in a 0-90 class 3 at Goodwood
Carlisle - blow out
Beaten 2.7l in a 0-105 class 2 at Newbury
Beaten 3.3l in a 0-95 class 3 at Ascot.
Is not too far away and all the while falling down the handicap …
In Aug and Sept last year won a 0-90 class 3 at Windsor from a mark of 86, then followed up in Sept with a win in a 0-95 class 2 at Ascot from a mark of 91.
If able to get back to that form, should go close here
Down to a mark of 85 tomorrow and down in class to a 0-90 class 3. AVG OR here is 85. It was 96 in his last race.
The price seems too big to me, the race is very competitive, but on his day he should be involved in this finish.
Speed Figure Picks
In the 20:00 at Windsor, Star Of Dubai is the standout selection. She was initially shortlisted due to a massive class drop, and deep analysis proves she holds all the aces against vulnerable dangers. We discarded Khuskhas (flattered by a slow pace last time), Denby's Dream (stepping up in grade), and Eazy On The Eye (stranded wide and likely to burn out in an early speed duel with Berlinetta).
Drawn perfectly in Stall 2, Star Of Dubai will get an ideal tracking trip. Sectional data proves she possesses a devastating late turn of foot over this distance, perfectly equipped to sweep past exhausted front-runners. Finally, the booking of course-specialist Oisin Murphy by a quiet yard signals massive intent.
Recommendation: Back Star Of Dubai. @ 9.0 e/w 3 places.