Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Saturday
Plenty of racing to go at on Saturday, if anything there is a little too much. Have picked out a couple that are dropping in grade today and we have a couple of speed figure bets that look reasonably strong too. One winner should pay for the day at the prices we are playing.
None of the races from Friday have run at the time of writing, so we have plenty to come.
Sunday looks much slower, only Pontefract to look at, There are no qualifiers for the speed figure selection method, but i will look in more detail at the races later this evening.
Good luck if you play along with any of these.
Drops In Class
1.35 Newcastle - Jewel Marker @ 21.0 e/w 4 places
An Easterby horse that has fallen down to a very attractive mark of 57. The horse had a decent run of form around Aug / Sept last year when mark was hovering around 59 - 62. A couple of wins, a second and a few thirds came in a three month spell that saw his mark jump from 59, to a high of 68.
This is a bit of a speculative punt based on the way Easterby does business, the horse seems to be well handicapped, is dropped in grade, back to a track the horse runs well at.
I question the choice of jockey as not being ideal, but the horse has won two races in each of the last 4 years. Is 0 from 6 so far this year, so I suspect we will get the upswing here soon enough. No reason why it cant be today. On his day can win this, but so can a lot of them in this race.
Lets have a swing.
3.05 York Dwindling Funds @ 7.0 e/w 5 places
A Goldie horse that is overdue a win. Beaten a neck in both of his last two runs. 30th June, in a 0-95 class 3 race as Musselburgh. From a mark of 76 that day .. could just not get ro the winner (rated 95) .. Somehow dropped 4lbs for that run and again beaten a neck in another class 3, slightly easier race this time , 0-90, but again found one too good, this time getting caught on the line over a mile at Ayr.
Back up to a mark of 76 here tomorrow at York, but another drop in grade into a 0-80. Gets Mulrennan up top to take over from the claimer Lauren Young who had ridden the last twice.
Mulrennan knows the horse well and has won on him three times from the 11 rides he has had. SHould be going close here. Price seems fair for the chance.
Speed Figure Picks
The 4.35 Newcastle: Mercurius Power @ 7.5 e/w 4 places paddy
Mercurius Power initially stood out on raw mathematical superiority, alongside Book Of Life and Arranmore. However, Arranmore was discarded because he lacks the early speed for a sharp mile, and Book Of Life’s dreadful starts often leave him too far behind in slowly run races.
Mercurius Power is the clear target. While basic pace maps and a wide draw suggested he might struggle, deeper sectional data proves he actually breaks sharply. He possesses the early foot to cross over, negate the wide draw, and comfortably track a slow pace. His extended form over this course and distance remains solid, and while his jockey has a quiet track record, trainer Jessica Macey is currently firing with a massive 80% place rate.
Salisbury 19:15: Liosa @ 5.0 win bet
Our top selection for this sprint is Liosa (IRE). Initially flagged by our speed figures with a dominant advantage, he clearly stands out in this field. While we shortlisted Secret Oath and The Caribbean as primary dangers, they were ultimately discarded; the clock shows Secret Oath can fade late, and The Caribbean lacks the explosive early speed needed to challenge. The Coffee Pod was also eliminated due to his poor recent form and sluggish starts.
Salisbury’s six-furlong track heavily rewards front-runners, and Liosa maps perfectly for this course. Sectional data from his recent Ripon win reveals a blistering 14.15-second opening furlong, proving he has the elite gate speed to dictate the race. Furthermore, extended form comments show he is dropping from a highly competitive Class 4 into today's Class 5, giving him a massive historical class edge. While his trainer and jockey have had a quiet two weeks, their solid long-term strike rates confirm they are more than capable of getting the job done.