Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Monday 25th May
A few new people should have joined us today, welcome.
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Generally I will be betting win only on all selections, or e/w on anything that is available for 3+ places at 5/1 or higher.
I tend to bet on the day using exchange prices as I am very limited with the books I can get on at. But I like to get the email out the night before for those who have bookie odds and who may prefer to bet the night before racing.
Good luck if you follow. We are not trying to be a “tipster service” but we like a bet and want to highlight a few horses each day that are worth a second look.
You can find me on Twitter : @IMarkYourCard and I will eventually look at setting up on Telegram for chat when we get enough people interested.
Repeat Performance
4.43 Redcar - Archduke Ferdinand @ 12/1 4 places
Winner of this race last year from a mark of 85. The comment that day was “close up, led after 1f, pushed along 2f out, went two lengths clear 1f out, reduced lead when eased slightly towards finish, comfortably”
That win pushed the horse to a career high of 90. Was never really on form for the rest of the season after being pushed up into class 3’s and a run in a class 2. (11 runs above class 4 - 0 wins and just one place)
Last race of the season back down into class 4 at Newmarket, was up with the pace and weakened inside the final furlong. Dale Swift was not up top that day, so I would not have thought the win was something that they had in mind.
That was last August, was put away after that for the season. They would have made plans to get a couple of runs into this one before going for this race again, and the horse came out In early April and late April for a couple of races to freshen the horse up over 5f (never won or placed over 5f)
Those two runs bought them an extra 5lb drop that enables him to get in here tomorrow from 6lbs lower than last year.
The race also looks to be a little easier this year (Average OR 78 v 82 last year) and although it looks on the surface to be one of those races that could go to anyone, I would wager that this horse will have been aimed for this one.
The horse is two from two at this track and trip, OR is back down into the 70’s, back up in trip to 6f. Favorite jockey up top. Everything points to the fact that they will be going for it, and the price is reasonable.
Drops In Class
2.57 Redcar - Oscars Sister @ 9.0 3 places
This horse cropped up earlier while I was looking at horses who had won the race last year, Camacho has two in the race, the first is Mayo County who won this race last year, but I could not quite make that one work, I discarded Mayo because the jockey/trainer stats were better on this one … and now Oscar shows up again using my class drop angle.
So, lets have a closer look.
This 6yo mare is reasonably lightly raced, never going to be a world beater, but does have bits of form, most noticeable here at Redcar and also at Haydock.
Of 20 runs, the horse has won once and placed 5 times. If we narrow to just those two tracks, we have 11 runs, 1 win and 5 places. Much better.
If we concentrate on redcar, 4 runs, 3 places.
May 25 - 3rd beaten lass than a length from a mark of 56
June 25 - 2nd btn Short Head from a mark of 58
Sept 25 - 2nd btn Short Head from mark of 58
Oct 25 - 6th btn 2.5 l from a mark of 60.
They do appear to want a win here, mark now back down to 57. No reason for this one not to be trying. If 8/1 or above shows I would be interested.
Edit opened @ 9.0 on 365, so its a bet.
Note - i’m also having a small 0.5pt win bet on last years winner Mayo County too at a price of 6.0 as a cover bet.
Speed Figure Picks
15:53 Windsor: Sudden Flight
@ 12.0 with 3 places in a couple of places
16:15 Leicester: Qitaal
opened @ 5.0 on 365
17:00 Windsor: Bold Impact
@ 11.0 3 places most books