Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Monday
Think we were somewhat unlucky on Saturday. Our first selection , sword .. got going late and closed all the way to the line. We were not beaten too far into second at the line.
We certainly got a run for our 10/1 bet.
The other one, Harry brown, we got tremendous value. 365 completely priced up wrong for this race and we took advantage of the 7.5 they offered early. The horse went off @ 2.88 but was unsettled in the gate and completely fluffed the start.
There is just no coming back from that over a 5f trip.
Still, no point crying over spilt milk. We are still +31pts on the month. Would be nice to get a couple more winners on the board though. Onto Monday. I have two to look at.
Drops In Class
4.15 Musselburgh - Sixcor @ 11.0 sky/paddy
Fascinating race here, at first glance looks impossible to crack, I initially went into the race trying to make a case for Wee Mary, big drop in class, Goldie/Mulrennan combo always has to be respected.
Once I got into the race though, I noticed that Linda Perratt has two in the race and the last three runnings of this she has had two wins and a second.
Sixcor won this in 2023 and was runner up last year. Won a few races ago at Ayr from a mark just 1lb higher than tomorrow, so still able to be competitive. Trainer obviously targets this particular race and the horse looks fit and well and is very familiar at this track, especially over the minimum trip against these rock bottom handicappers should be very competitive.
The going is my only concern, although the horse has won on gd/sft previous, recent runs on any going that has “soft” in the title seem to have dampened the horse a little. At the price though and overall probably worth taking a chance.
Speed Figure Picks
19:18 at Windsor - Koffee And Kale @ 6.5 sky/paddy
In today’s 19:18 at Windsor, speed figure analysis quickly discarded early pace-setters like Star Obsession and Venetian Romance, whose raw ratings fall well short of this Class 6 standard. The data narrowed the race to a two-horse shootout: Molly Mac and Koffee And Kale.
Molly Mac maps perfectly from stall 6, but she is climbing the weights and sectional data reveals her recent wins were heavily flattered by crawling paces. Koffee And Kale is the definitive standout. Boasting a decent speed figure advantage, he takes a huge class drop into a 0-65 handicap off a career-low mark of 61 and returns to the exact Course and Distance of his career-best run.
While historical pace maps flag him as a vulnerable hold-up horse, granular sectional data proves otherwise. Off today's forecast moderate tempo, he has the tactical speed to sit prominent. Crucially, his blistering 11.71s closing C&D furlong completely eclipses Molly Mac's grinding 12.4s finish.
Despite trainer Michael Bell's quiet fortnight, the booking of Hector Crouch—operating at a red-hot 25% strike rate and a proven winner on this gelding—seals the deal.