Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Friday
Looks like we finally have a day we can get stuck into. Its been a quiet few days for us, but, bets are like buses, you wait all week for one .. then three or four come along all at once.
Our only bet on Thursday was Nogos Dream, we took 5.0, came second at 3.75.
Found one too good once more. Beat the price, don’t get the result, seems to be the story of our month so far.
Drops In Class
8.25 York - Go Vince Go @ 5.0 (paddy)
Seems like an Easterby Special.
Last win was at this track in October in a hcap nursery from a mark of 81.
Raised 6lbs for that .. then runs “ok” without mark dropping too much, so, they target a race .. run the horse against better last 2 times and mark drops from 85 down to 80 ..
Last time out was only beaten 3l, behind early, switched to get a run, ran on well over 5f at this track, average OR that day 85. Avg OR today is 75.
A big drop in class today and upped to 5.5f. I suspect we are prominent , pushed out early to lead and hope to hold on against lesser competition this time around.
I like it, but its plenty short.
David Allen gets the ride, same trainer has the top weight so this one can carry less.
Speed Figure Picks
17:12 Ascot : Lady Roxby @ 5.5
We looked at a few of the handicap races at Ascot and in the 17:12 we landed on Lady Roxby. We looked deeper into Paradise Walk, Killavia, and Carefree Dream using a combination of speed figures, pace/draw, back form, class, jockey and trainer form and sectionals we were able to discount them one by one. Lady Roxby is the clear selection thanks to a significant class drop. While her held-up style initially looked risky from the draw, the pace data shows Killavia and Paradise Walk will battle early, ensuring the strong gallop she needs. Extended form highlights her higher-class pedigree over Ascot's fast 5f, and sectionals prove her explosive mid-race turn of foot. With trainer Herrington's yard placing consistently, she loos primed to run a nice race.
Chepstow 18:26: Brave Byreflection @ 15.0 win bet.
In our hunt for runners holding a hidden speed advantage, Brave Byreflection quickly emerged as the standout. Rivals like On Key were discarded due to fading stamina over seven furlongs, while Prefer The Sister carries top weight and a quirky temperament under pressure.
Brave Byreflection is a proven course and distance winner on this Good-to-Firm ground, arriving today with a massive drop in class. Drawn perfectly in Stall 4, the pace setup allows her to secure an ideal prominent position without doing too much early work. Past form comments and running times prove she possesses a sharp late burst over this trip when given a smooth ride. While her jockey is currently quiet, her trainer's flawless recent strike rate inspires absolute confidence.
The Bet:
Brave Byreflection. Paddy opened @ 15.0, 365 will be paying 3 places, so would be happy to take down to 10/1 e/w with them .. lets see where they open. Failing that go win and place tomorrow on the exchanges.
As 365 have not yet priced up and its after 5pm, I’m going to send out now with a win bet @ 15.0 advised.