Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Sunday
We have so far had a fantastic Ascot, by managing to avoid it completely. Would be grateful for a retweet of this if you don’t mind. Trying to get a few more involved in this and the likes and retweets help enormously.
After a rocky start to the month where we were down 21 points at one point, we are now +7.4pts ahead and will only get stronger from here, I have adjusted a few things behind the scenes , changed what isn’t working, and improved what is working.
As a side note, so far month to date it would be just slightly better to have taken 1pt win bets on all selections rather than all of the each way bets.
Personally I prefer them. If you have the bankroll and the tolerance for losing runs, it is the better way to go. If you have a smaller bank or if you want lower variance (losing runs) stick with the each way as recommended.
ok, onto Sunday. Mostly smaller priced win bets today.
Drops In Class
2.35 Pontefract - Reigning Profit @ 8.0 - 3 places
Last win for this horse was in a class 3, 0-90 here at Pontefract over 5f in August of last year from a mark of 81. we got the old “trainer could offer no explanation for improved form” line even though one month before this the horse has run a close nk second in a 52k class two handicap at Ascot. Does not seem to me as though the horse was punching above its weight based on that bit of form.
This is one of those fantastic older horses that the trainer seems to do so well with. There is usually very little way of knowing when the horse will fire though.
Pontefract is a track that the horse likes. Has 9 runs here and 4 wins. Sullivan has been aboard for 7 of the horses 9 wins. Over this track and trip the horse has 4 wins from 7 runs.
As long as we can avoid trouble in running, the horse is in a race that should be ideal for him. Right track, right trip, right jockey, 3lb lower than last win, lowest grade opposition he has faced for a while.
If the horse shows up here with the right attitude on Sunday, he should be winning this one all day long.
There is a “but”
He does have another entry on the 25th at Hamilton in a 0-90, the prize money there is twice as much as it is here. Sullivan is already booked for the ride, the handicappers will not have time to reassess after this run. He is 15th of the 17 entries with a maximum of 15 allowed, so will get a spot in that race regardless of result here, and most crucially, all 9 of the horses wins have been when he is running within 15 days of his last race. His last race was 29 days ago.
It could well be that this is a warmup and he will “find trouble” in this one… but, you pays your money and you takes your chance.
Notebook Horses
2.56 Brighton - Power Of Prayer @ 4.5 - win bet
Last time out was stable debut for this 4yo Filly, acquired from the O’Brien stable in Feb for just 8k, the horse was running in a low grade 1m 2f handicap at Brighton. Was held up early, came wide and ran on well as the race got going. Closest at the line and looking as though she wants further.
Was sent off fav in her last two runs for OBrien after winning a 1m4f Handicap race at Dundalk back in Nov, was then unable to follow up in a similar apprentice race over the same track and trip, and was then upped to 2 miles at Dundalk for her last run, where she faded late in the race.
Was purchased in jun of 26 and was immediately put into a race that was likely too short for her just so that they could get a look at where she was. Upped back to 1m4f here, the trip should suit better, retains callan in the saddle who will know more about her this time. Is not being asked to do too much more than she did in her last race and I expect she will go close here.
Speed Figure Picks
14:35 Pontefract - Lethal Nymph @ 4.0 - 3 places
15:56 Brighton - Danehill Star @ 4.50 - win bet
16:05 Pontefract - Azure Zain @ 5.5 - win bet
16:35 Pontefract - Amidst The Chaos @ 5.5 - win bet