Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Thursday.
After worrying about our “should we or shouldn’t we” bet on Percy’s Lad today .. it has been declared a non-runner. Hopefully they get it into the right race again next time and we can have a go on it.
I was initially interested in Dandy Khan in tomorrows 3.20 Linfield as a “class dropper” .. but Ocean Force looks to have been held back in previous races and given races that would not suit in order to get a very low initial mark in handicap races.
I suspect that Ocean Force will be a different animal tomorrow. Breeding suggests that he should easily have this lot covered, especially from an opening mark of just 55. 365 opened at 5/1 .. immediately cut to 7/2 and now settle at 3/1.
Instead we focus on two speed figure horses. Both at a price.
We currently sit at +36.33 pts for the month. I would appreciate if you could recommend us to anyone that you think may appreciate the emails or the twitter link.
I do this for free, once i have my own bet placed, i’m happy to share with others, but it does get lonely up here just watching the races and reading the form most of the day. A little interaction on X would be appreciated.
Anyway, enough about me, Lets have a go on these two and see what happens.
Good luck if you play along.
Speed Figure Picks
Newmarket 16:20: Cancan In The Rain @ 8.0
Our speed figures initially highlighted Cancan In The Rain as the mathematical standout in Newmarket's 16:20 handicap. While Mr Writer and Dashing Dick showed initial promise, they were discarded. Mr Writer’s trainer is 0-for-14 at this track recently, and sectional data proves front-runner Dashing Dick hits a stamina wall late over 7f.
We landed firmly on Cancan In The Rain. Drawn perfectly in stall 8, he maps into the statistically "sweet" prominent zone, ideal for tracking the lone pace-setter. He thrives on Good to Firm turf and is a proven course winner. Timeform confirms his smooth-travelling style, validated by Ascot sectionals revealing a potent 12.35s final furlong kick.
With trainer Gihan Arnolda boasting a 17% overall win rate and jockey Darragh Keenan showing track profitability, the profile is watertight. C&D specialist Cherry Cobbler is the obvious danger, but our target's superior speed differential dictates the play.
15:10 at Newmarket : Big Alex Walmsley @ 23.0
Using our speed figure analysis, Big Alex Walmsley topped the shortlist showing the potential for a big run today against his current official rating of 58, he was a fair way ahead of Calyxoh. The rest of the field was confidently discarded due to negative figures and weak speed profiles.
His extended form reveals he is incredibly "well in," having placed in this exact 0-75 grade off a mark of 62 just last month. Crucially, his peak speed rating was achieved over today's 1m distance on Good to Firm ground.
While pace mapping suggests front-runner Mertoun will dictate a slow tempo, sectional times expose his vulnerability. Mertoun faded badly up the Newmarket hill recently, clocking a sluggish 13.25s final furlong. In contrast, Walmsley boasts proven 1m closing splits (11.25s/12.00s) that can run the leader down, while late-closer Calyxoh simply lacks the acceleration needed to capitalize off a slow pace.
Despite cold stable form, jockey Benoit De La Sayette knows the horse intimately. If he can get this keen runner to settle early and preserve his energy, the math dictates he wins.