Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Monday
Been a decent enough few days for us. The more selective way of picking the horses is starting to pay off. Its a numbers game, If we keep plugging away we will make decent money.
Have had a couple of people ask me about my selection method recently, here is what I told them :
Every horse I look at goes through several “layers” of checks before it gets put up here.
We have the basic underlying qualifier .. either a speed figure horse or a horse that is dropping in grade after running well against better.
We then also look at :
1. A Ground and going suitability check.
2. A Pace / Draw profile for the race that we are targeting to give us an idea of how the race might be run and to identify who the main dangers are to our target selection.
3. A look at extended form for our target selection and also for any dangers to our selection that we identified in the pace/draw layer. This will give an overview of our selections extended form and runstyle.
4. Runstyle/Sectional data for our target horse and any dangers in the race to determine if this race might be run to suit or if any red flags may be thrown up.
5. Jockey and Trainer Form to ensure the jockey and trainer are in form and there are no red flags with current runners.
One bad piece of information does not always rule out a selection completely, but if enough red flags appear, we need to be rethinking if a selection should continue to be worthy of a bet.
If anyone ever has questions or comments i’m more than happy to share ideas and/or information. The more of us beating the bookies, the better as far as I’m concerned. There is plenty to go around. I have never understood the animosity on parts of racing twitter, its us v them … the bookies are the enemy. As long as you are fighting each other, they are happy, when we turn our collective attention towards beating them, they will start to look worried.
Good luck if you are playing along today.
Drops In Class
7.30 Bev - A War Eagle @ 6.0 365, 5.5 paddy Win Bet
Another Easterby horse ...
This one won over the same course and distance four runs ago from a mark of 82 in a race with AVG OR of 77.
Was then pushed up into a class 2 at thirsk and was beaten 2.4l that day in a 0-100. Next time out, Chester, class 3 0-90. Beaten 3.4l and dropped 1lb for that effort, then last time out back into a class 2 0-95 at Epsom, beaten 4.4l over 7f making headway in that race towards the line, AVG OR in that one was 88.
Stays on a mark of 84 here, been running against better, back to track and trip of last win, back down in grade in a MUCH easier looking race.
Odds seem fair.
Speed Figure Picks
15:00 Ayr - Ramon Di Loria @ 7.5 win bet.
Class Specialist: He is perfectly spotted today. He is absolutely thriving in his optimal 0-60 class band, boasting three consecutive in-the-frame finishes under identical conditions, proving he is ready to win off his current mark.
Tactical Pace Advantage: The race projects to be run at a crawl. Sectional data proves that the likely lone front-runner (Supreme Dancer) tires badly late. Ramon Di Loria possesses the tactical versatility to sit prominent and track the speed, allowing him to get first run on the main dangers (Imperial Guard and Yaaser), who will be trapped at the rear trying to close into a slow pace.
Proven Closing Efficiency: Sectional data from just last week over this exact Course and Distance proved he can track a slow pace efficiently and still unleash a massive 105.19% Finishing Speed Percentage to close the show.
Stable Firepower: The Ewan Whillans yard is operating at a red-hot 25% win rate over the last 14 days. Greg Fairley crucially retains the ride after perfectly executing the necessary prominent tactics on this horse last week.
The price is fair, but with only two places e/w - we will go for a a win bet on this one at anything over 5/1