Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Weds
Beautiful double up today. 7.0 and 5.0 winners to give us a profit of 36.33 pts so far this month.
Number of Bets: 19
Number of Winners: 8
Profit and Loss (P&L): +36.33
Return on Investment (ROI): 191.21%
The one below was not going to be a bet as it ran earlier today at Wolvs .. I was not sure that I wanted to have a go again on an 8 year old running in his third race in 8 days … having said that, the price has now drifted from an opening 9/2, out to 7/1 ..and may well drift a little more overnight given his lacklustre performance at Wolverhampton earlier.
This track is ideal for the horse, the trip is perfect, the front running tactics if they are employed will be perfect in this race against these horses. He is drawn perfectly too …
I would have been MUCH happier had the horse not taken up the engagement on Tuesday, but he did .. so we have to move past that and decide if the price is acceptable for the risk, and at 7/1 i’m willing to risk a point of our profits to watch the race and trust the trainer to make the right decisions. If the horse is not sound after the run today, i’m sure he will do the right thing and declare the horse a non-runner. If that happens we get money back and fight another day.
I have two speed horses that have passed all of the checks for racing on Thursday. One in the 3.10 at Newmarket and the other in the 4.20 at Newmarket.
Bets for those two will be out once the bookies price up. I will also look to see if there are any class droppers worth a look on Thursday to go with them.
Good luck if you follow.
Speed Figure Picks
19:30 Kempton, Percy's Lad @ 8.0 +
In the 19:30 Unibet London Mile Series Qualifier at Kempton, the Kubler-trained Percy's Lad emerges as a standout win-only target.
Our initial speed figure analysis identified a commanding speed figure advantage for the eight-year-old, separating him decisively from the field. While major dangers like Lake Como and Victory Ace posted respectable figures, they were discarded due to fatal tactical disadvantages.
Lake Como : Despite solid raw speed, he profiles as a hold-up horse (64% held up) and maps squarely into a poor tactical zone. Course DNA shows that hold-up horses at Kempton face a severe statistical disadvantage (Impact Value as low as 0.59–0.75). Sectional analysis proved that Lake Como’s impressive late kicks entirely rely on a slow, collapsing pace. Because Percy's Lad sets a relentless mid-race tempo rather than allowing a speed collapse, Lake Como will likely be left with too much ground to make up.
Victory Ace : While he is a progressive, in-form 3-year-old who finishes his races well, his style relies on tracking a moderate early gallop from midfield. Against a relentless front-runner dictating terms on his preferred polytrack surface, Victory Ace will be forced to expend critical energy just to stay in contact before the home turn.
The pace and draw data tell the real story. Kempton’s 1m polytrack heavily favors prominent racers (Impact Value 1.71). Drawn perfectly in Stall 1, Percy’s Lad—a dedicated front-runner—owns the shortest route to the rail. Sectional data confirms he can easily sustain a relentless 11.8s mid-race furlong tempo, effectively breaking the field.
Furthermore, he is a proven Class 2 performer thriving in Class 4 company.
With the Kubler yard operating at a red-hot 27% 14-day strike rate and jockey Ebrahim Nader returning after a Kempton win, this seems to be a flawless setup.