Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Weds
Once more yesterday we smashed the odds, we took 7.0. our selection went off at a Betfair SP of 3.75. We should be making plenty of money, its not coming our way as fast as the numbers suggest that it should.
Annoying, frustrating, but I know for certain if I keep picking out the value, I will get the money eventually.
Today, our selection was 11.0, was sent off at 5.6 Betfair SP. Massive value secured, and we finally get our win:
A few to go at for racing on the 15th. Again, I am quite hopeful.
Some we ruled out, all profiled quite well and seemed to have the overall speed to contend in their races, but sectional analysis found flaws.
19:20 Lingfield: Desert Shadow, should lead, but I suspect he idles when in front and will get done by the time the line comes. 16:10 Catterick: Woodstock, will likely get shuffled back early in this one, might not have the pace to come past them late on. 16:40 Catterick: Albegone, another who may use up to much energy early in the race and then fade late.
2.10 Catterick : Made all. a horse rated 70 running against horses rated at least 10lbs lower, however the weight it has to carry, the fact it is an amateur race and the good chance that we will be offered no price at all makes this one a pass.
Repeat Performance
4.31 Bath - Offiahs Boy @ 17.0 e/w
Looks to have been managed quite well for this one.
Went through a great spell last year, between June and August ran in seven races and won four and was second twice. OR went from 50 to 60 in that time. After a couple of races over hurdles and a few runs down the field the OR is now back down to a workable mark, gets in here off a mark of 52, exactly the same as when winning this same race last year.
Both jockey and trainer do well at this track with better stats here than overall average. Jockey has ridden three of the horses four wins, over track and trip the horse is two from three. Ground, track, trip, grade and connections all check out.
If the horse can find the form he had last year, there is no reason why we cant get a return on our money tomorrow at a fair price.
Drops In Class
3.31 Bath : Beach Partee @ 9.0 win bet
We are going to have a swing at this one. The only 3yo in the race. 4 runs ago went over 5.5f here at Bath from a mark of 63. Weakening inside the final furlong that day.
They dropped him to 5f at Ffos the race after, on soft ground and he stayed on that day .. but was not able to get within striking distance. All other horses that day were rated at least 8lbs higher. AVG OR was 69.
Back up to 6f for his last 2 runs, “fading inside final furlong” on each of those occasions. Also still running above grade, but beten only 4l and 3l.
Tomorrow, drops into an easier looking race. AVG OR is just 53. Down to 5f. All of the horses previous form seems to have come from races with a smaller number runners, so this one should suit.
At the price its certainly worth a swing. Trainer has two of the 6 runners in here, both for the same owner.
Speed Figure Picks
17:05 Bath: Rival @ 10.0 e/w
The race sets up perfectly for his tactical profile. We know Weston Court will press a weak pace but consistently empties his tank late over 1m. Rival has shown that he can track on Firm ground and unleash a lethal closing kick. Furthermore, the slow pace neutralizes the deep closer, My Ambition, making it less likely for him to bridge the gap in a late sprint.
Jockey/ Trainer stats are a bit of a red flag, both recent and longer term stats don’t boost confidence.
Trainer J L Flint (0 wins from 5 in 14 days) and jockey Charles Bishop (4% strike rate in 14 days) are completely out of form, and their historical strike rates at Bath are a dismal 5% and 7%, respectively.
Having said that, the horse sets up well on most other filters that we look at, the speed figures, the perfect tactical setup, the ground, track and trip are all fine, this makes him a bet, but only if the bookies give us a price we can work with.
18:40 Yarmouth: Sea Suite @ 5.50 win bet
Presents a flawless profile.
Sectional data pointed towards his recent failure being down to an 8f stamina wall (collapsing to a 13.22s final furlong). Dropped back to his optimal 7f, he gets an unopposed tracking trip behind Dion Baker—a front-runner who grinds out even splits (100.25% FSP) but lacks a finishing kick. Sea Suite IRE possesses a superior 103.87% tracking kick over this course and distance.
The Connections: Sea Suite’s human elements are elite. Trainer J P Owen is operating at a massive 24% strike rate at Yarmouth (+18 P/L) and 19% over the last 14 days. Jockey Cieren Fallon boasts an 18% strike rate at the track.
He ticks every single box: speed, pace, distance, sectionals, and stable form. He seems to be a sound bet.