Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Monday
Finally got the profit and loss done, as we know the month started out horrible, but we have picked up a little the last few days. We are learning as we go along here lads. I have only been sending out these newsletters for a few weeks, so we will add things and remove things and get into a rhythm of what works and what does not.
Overall, disappointed with the month so far, but the last week of May was great, and would have covered the loss we have month to date in June .. so we keep on moving forward.
The positive, we were down 20 points at one point, we have got back 10 points in the last few days .. we have had a couple of close seconds .. if just one of those had won at a price, we would be sat at level profits for the month to date. I’m not too worried where we are at , it could have been worse, we will be fine and hopefully be in profit by the end of the month.
Overall month to date :
Total Profit/Loss: -11.90 units
Total Number of Bets: 44
Win Rate: 9.09% (4 wins)
Place Rate: 20.45% (10 places)
I would expect longer term the win rate to be closer to 15% and place rate to be closer to 30%)
Best Performing Method:
Repeat Performance is the only profitable selection method, yielding +1.84 units from 7 bets (14.29% win rate, 42.86% success rate including places).
Most Active Method: Speed Figure was used the most (18 bets) but resulted in a net loss of -1.58 units, despite producing 2 wins and 5 places.
Worst Performing Method: Jockey/Trainer Stats performed poorly, resulting in a loss of -6.60 units across 8 bets with 0 wins and only 1 place.
We will look at this at end of month and revise as necessary, if we stop jockey/trainer stats .. we can look at “hot races” instead … which follows form out of races that have produced two or more winners. I also look at something called “each-way steals” that targets bigger priced horses with positive profiles in races with extra places. I can look at “beaten favorites with excuses” Plenty of ways “into” a race to explore and exploit moving forward.
Repeat Performance
3.20 Carlisle - Artic Fox @ 17.0 - 4 places 1/5th odds paddy/sky
Won this race last year from a mark of 59.
Seems to be in form based on last two runs, both at Catterick. in april beaten 0.5l in a 0-65 class 6 .. the one behind ours that day has won since and is now rated 70.
Last time out upped to 2m in a 0-65, btn less than 3l that day over a trip the hors does not seem to get. (never won from 17 runs over 1m6f.)
Back down in trip for this one tomorrow, looks to be a harder race than last year, but over a track and trip he likes, with a jockey that knows him well.
All 6 of the horses wins have been in May/Jun/July (0-36 outside of those 3 months)
Worth taking a chance on a nice e/w play in this race.
Track Specialist
5.05 Chepstow Ajrad @ 6.5 - 3 places 1/5th paddy (6.0 4 places sky)
This 8yo gelding has won 8 of his 67 races.
7 of those 8 have been in Class 6 events.
Has run 8 times at Chepstow and won 3 times, all three of those wins have been over the 1m trip.
In 1m, class 6 runs at this track, the horse is 3 from 3.
Gets his conditions tomorrow, drops in grade for this, off a winnable mark, decent 5lb claimer in the saddle. I like this one a lot.
Speed Figure Picks
15:50 Carlisle - Jkr Cobbler @ 7.0 - 4 places 1/5th odds
16:58 Carlisle - Saisons d'Or @ 5.0 win bet
15:30 Chepstow - Moostar @ 6.0 - 3 places 1/5th odds
17:05 Chepstow - Scenario @ 11.0 - 3 places 1/5th odds
(9.0 4 places on sky)
16:15 Wetherby - Dark Kestrel @ 11.0 - 3 places 1/5th odds
