Flat Racing at York and Salisbury.
Does not seem to be loads to go at for tomorrow, spotted one that opened at a reasonable price.
5.40 Salisbury. Stock Market
Shown little since move from O'Brien towards the end of last year. Until last time out, when dropped to 5f. Mark down 9lbs from original OR given to the horse last year. Sent out in a 0-70 (anf OR 67) and beaten into 3rd by horses rated 67 and 69 that day. "Ran on well" was the comment.
Tomorrow back up in trip but into a race with an AVG OR of just 55. Given another 3lbs drop from the handicapper despite going down less than a length in a better race than this one today.
Worth a dabble at opening price of 6/1 with 4 places on 365.
Jockey/Trainer Stats.
Cieren Fallon appears to be the goto at the track with a remarkable 39% strike rate here over the last 3 years (7 wins from 18 runs)
He has 3 runners tomorrow :
Race | Horse | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
3.53 Salisbury | Ancestor | Haggas, W J | 3.00 |
4.28 Salisbury | Pierian | Haggas, W J | 2.88 |
5.40 Salisbury | Apex Star (IRE) | Knight, W J | 6.00 |
Ancestor for Haggas opened at 3/1 on Paddy and is worth a second look. The horse is making debut, but Haggas won this race in 2023 and again in 2025 (no runner in 2024) Both those winers have gone on to bigger and better.
Haggas and Fallon combo is 3 from 7 over the last 3 years.
I also had three tracker horses going for tomorrow :
2:55 York - Sea Force - currently 7/2 (365 and Paddy)
My notes from last run,
14:40 Saturday 02 May 2026
SKY BET THIRSK HUNT CUP HANDICAP (2) Distance : 7f 218y
Prize : £30,924 Rated : (0-105) Age : 4yo+ Race Type : Flat Surface : Turf
Its seems to be just a matter of time before one of these races falls right for Sea Force. Sat three or four down on the inside for most of the race, started looking for room from just before the 2f marker. Three horses in front formed a wall that did not open, one on his inside blocked the rail path, at the 1f mark, a couple of those in front started tp tire and a gap appeared. The horse took the opportunity and went forward with ease, only to once again run into one in front (the eventual winner) closing the gap up the rail. Horse looked incredibly unlucky, certainly had more to give, and did not look out of place in this 0-105 race here. Follow this one forward.
The other two traker horses go in the same race tomorrow :
Sudbury Hill and Dryburgh both run in the 17:15 York. Of the two I would lean more towards Sudbury Hill at a price of 8/1 with 5 places available being the better option of the two, but i would likely have a smaller bet on the Dryburgh at 16/1 (18’s at 365) too again 5 places if you can get it.
Notes for prior races are below
17:02 Thursday 30 April 2026
HANDICAP (5) Distance : 1m 2f 1y Prize : £4,187
Rated : (0-75) Age : 3yo Race Type : Flat Surface : Turf
Sudbury Hill, ran into one that was 6lbs well-in here, pulled 10 lengths clear of the third place horse but not quite able to get the better of the winner in this, despite a little bit of bumping and barging inside the final furlong, probably deserved better and given how this went, is certainly better than his current mark suggests, likely to go up a couple of lbs for this, but would not want to bet against this one going one better next time out if in a similar mood.
HANDICAP Distance : 1m 2f 50y Rated : (0-70) Age : 3yo
Dryburgh, Very slow out of the gate gave away 10+ lengths at the start, came through the race well, jockey did not panic, but horse simply had too much to do in the straight, pulled well clear of the rest, but the eventual winner had a little left in the tank and got first run .. certainly worth watching next time out this one.
Good luck if you play along with any of these on Thursday.
Pete