Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Monday
Made a couple of slight tweaks to the Speed Ratings system based on results over the last couple of months. This will hopefully target the recency of the ratings rather than rely on the ceiling. Will also lend a heavier weighting to course / distance / jockey similarity so a rating gained in similar conditions as the horse has today will be given a slight bump.
Indications are that this will improve strike rate slightly and dampen the ratings of those that have run a big number but not done much before or since. Changes are not major and will not significantly change the basic way the system works, but it will hopefully buy us a few extra % in ROI at the end of the month / year.
Onto Monday where the lower grade racing is back in full force. Bookies have priced up earlyish, so email is going out early.
Jockey/Trainer Stats
Style Of Life was going to be the selection, however that one is now a non-runner, couple of the others I highlighted on twitter are too short to play. So no bet in this category.
Repeat Performance
Just the one for me here, the other horse going tomorrow that won the same race last year was Regal Envoy in the 7.39 Windsor, Oisin Murphy rides, 3lbs lower OR than last year, horse is in form and likes the track, when Oisin has ridden the horse 8 times with 4 wins and 6 places.
Price will be prohibitive for me, at 3/1 or less its not worth the risk on the gd/sft ground, the horse has never won with a bit of cut in the ground. Only run one time on gd/sft and did ok, but was pulled from a race more recently when the ground was “soft” for “unsuitable conditions” so .. i would not want to risk it going any softer.
4.00 Leic - Shark Two One @ 8.5 - 3 places
(Sky and unibet going 4 places here may be worth waiting for odds from those two)
Won this race last year from a mark of 47.
The race is a “Classified Stakes Race” for horses rated up to 50. The conditions usually mean all horses carry the same weight and penalties apply if a horse has won in the last x number of days etc.
The last time our selection ran in a classified stakes race was in this race last year, since then he has been running in regular handicap races. Drops back into classified for the first time since then.
After winning this last year had three other 3rd place efforts and then ran down the field at Nottingham before being put away for the season.
Came back in April and has had two warm up races for this, both times ridden by this decent 5lb claimer. Those last 3 runs have bought the horse a 5lb reduction in his handicap mark to being him back down to last years winning mark, the additional claim from the jockey puts the horse 5lb below last years mark.
Horse has a decent record over track and trip - 5 runs, 2 wins. Placed all five times.
Drop in grade, track the horse likes, decent claiming jockey, mark back down, ground is fine, price is good enough, worth a nibble at an each way price I think.
Drops In Class
3.45 Carlisle - Lanarra @ 5.0 win bet
Am going to write this one up, but not sure we will get the price to make it a bet.
Edit : 365 opened at 5.0 .. i was hoping we would see 7/2 so this is a decent bet.
This 3yo Filly won a Hcp Nursery back in October 25 at 66/1, was outpaced early but stayed on really well that day to get up on the line. The one in second has gone on to win two since then and is now rated 70.
Had 7 months off the track and came back a couple of weeks ago in a regular handicap at Catterick and was slow away, held up, once again outpaced a little and then rallied towards the end of the race, could not quite get there and was beaten a neck. Split horses rated 62 and 64.
Highest rated in this race tomorrow has an OR of just 55. Hopefully the drop in grade will give ours a chance to settle a little better and will not be outpaced at this level.
Should be very competitive and I’m sure we will get a run for our money.
Speed Figure Picks
16:35 Leicester - Seagolazo @ 11.0 - 3 places
17:28 Carlisle - Orbital Chime @ 11.0 - 3 places