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4.50 Lingfield - Accrual @ 12.0 - 3 places

This one has not been running great for a while, but mark is now back down to a dangerous level, when running from a mark of 80 or below the horse has 5 wins and 7 places from 11 runs. Above 80, 12 runs, no wins and just 3 places.

Four of his five wins have been on all weather surfaces.

Had a great run of form towards the end of last year with two wins and 3 seconds inside a month, that run took his mark from 77, up to 89. Has been slowly falling back down since then and tomorrow gets a run at 78 after the handicapper dropped the horse from 86, to 78 following a couple of poor runs in higher grade flat turf surfaces in slower ground.

This will suit much better, a mark we know he can be competitive from, a surface and track he likes, a distance he has good form over on a sharp track. We should see a better run this time around.

7.40 Ripon - Reigning Profit @ 7.0 - 3 places.

This is the last time I follow this horse over the cliff edge. (probably)

We have been on this horse several times now, and I am certain he wins the very next time that we don’t put him up as a selection.

Last time out the warning I gave was that he only seems to win when running within 15 days of his last outing. He fell into that zone in his last race, and does so again here tomorrow, with the added bonus that the horse is back at Ripon tomorrow, a track the horse his been to twice before, and won at two times. this is also a big drop in grade, last race AVG OR 82, this race just 73. Was not beaten too far last time, hopefully today is the day that the head crosses the line first.

So many hard luck stories in his formlines. Maybe no longer has the raw speed he once had, but will still win his fair share when competing in the right race. Has as good a chance as any in this one and the price seems fair for an each way to nothing type bet.

18:30 at Wolverhampton - Winemaker @ 3.75 - win bet

Drawn perfectly inside in Stall 3, he should get the ideal prominent tow from the aggressive pace-setters, The Fixer and She's A Gift, who are drawn around him and virtually guaranteed to force a blistering early tempo.

Winemaker’s sectionals prove he can stalk efficiently and finish with a potent late kick over five furlongs. Conversely, course-and-distance data for the front-runners reveals they are likely to tie up in the final furlong after engaging in a relentless speed duel. The main danger, South Shore, is a highly capable tracker but is drawn wide in Stall 7, forcing a much more complex path compared to our selection's ground-saving trip on the rail.

The selection boasts a speed figure advantage over his rivals, and crucially, his absolute peak performances have all been exclusively achieved under today's exact Standard All-Weather conditions.

The connections are perfectly aligned for his highly anticipated stable debut. Trainer Richard Hughes targets Wolverhampton with precision, operating at a 20% strike rate here over the last two years, while jockey Finley Marsh is riding with excellent confidence, boasting a 13% win rate and a 38% place rate over the last 14 days.