Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Friday
Sorry all, was kept away from my desk all day on Thursday, so did not get a chance to go through the racing properly until very late.
Still not getting the results, however the fact that we are beating the closing odds, often quite significantly, tells me that we are still on the right horses, we are just on the downside of our variance streak right now.
We were a head away from the double landing, we were on the right horse. But got the wrong result. It happens. Stick with it, things will turn.
I am going to keep this email fairly short and will send out now (approx 4am I am starting to type this up) Odds you see are current at the time the email is being sent.
Will then crack on with Saturday form reading and get the email out as normal by 5pm on Friday evening for racing on Saturday.
Good luck if you play along.
Jockey/Trainer Stats
I did a post on Twitter for Friday runners and sent it out already, in conclusion, i would likely only be betting on Sherlock at the prices. :
Jockey / Trainer stats for Racing on Friday 5th June.
All stats are at this track over the last 2 years unless otherwise noted :
Bath - Pat Cosgrave
23 runs - 10 wins - 43% Strike Rate.
5:35 Bill The Bull - a Kirby 2yo
6:05 Miss Magic Dragon - trained by Donovan, who himself is 2 from 5 at the track over the last 2 years. This one is a 3yo Course and Distance winner. Had Cosgrave up top back in May for that CD win, then went to Redcar and Lingfield did not seem to quite get home in the 6f races, Back here at Bath on Friday, Cosgrave back up top. Must have a chance.
Musselburgh : Camacho
7 runs 3 wins is about the best I could dig up, has just one at the track on Friday :
3:00 - Highland Shah - 1st time in a handicap .. cant find much to make it a bet, but the stat is there for those who may want to dig a little deeper.
Thirsk : Stott / Ryan
10 runs - 4 wins - 6 places.
They have three runners on Friday :
1:40 Circle Of Trust
3-5yo maiden race, the only horse with an OR, pretty exposed and looks average v who knows what.
3:30 Sherlock - @ 6.0 - 3 places
Broke maiden in a handicap race at Newcastle over 5f back in Feb from a mark of 56 in a 0-60. Then had three runs upped to 6f, the last of which was a close second at this track in mid April going down just 0.5l that day to a horse rated 75. Avg OR that day was 67. On Friday it is 59. Much easier race, same track and trip. main jockey takes over. One with a chance surely.
5:20 Showtown
Looks to be a very open 3yo Hcap race. Not sure I would want to get involved here.
Repeat Performance
5.25 Good - Platinum Prince @ 6.5 - 3 places
Won this race last year from a mark of 64. (0-70) on his second run of the season - tried again at Goodwood over a furlong less and up in grade to a 0-80 and was not involved that day after being slowly away - only went down 3.5l at the line though.
Came back to track and trip in Aug with todays jockey up top and won well again from a mark of 67, again dropped into a 0-70 that day.
Two more runs last season both on heavy ground, a 2l second over 1m3f in a 0-70 again at goodwood, and then a down the field run at Bath again over 1m 2f.
Put away for the season after that. Made reappearance back in May at Windsor, 1m2f down the field again, slow away always behind.
Back to Course and Distance of his last two wins with Jockey from his last win for tomorrow. Mark down to 67 which is same as last winning mark. Horse will handle the gd-sft that is forecast.
Opened at 4.5 on 365 early, but has now drifted to a backable e/w price. Gets his conditions, Likes the track, won from this mark, won with this jockey, last two wins over track and trip one of which was on the same ground as he gets tomorrow.
No reason why we should get a good run for our money.
Drops In Class
6.05 Bath - Luna Beaux @ 6.0 - 3 places
Went into the race looking at Miss Magic Dragon with the Jockey/Trainer stats, however that one has had a couple of attempts after his course and distance win back in May and has failed to follow up or improve from that.
Luna Beaux on the other hand is dropping down in grade to run here.
This one was running in Ireland last year and switched to A Wintle to make UK Debut a winning one at Wolvs from a mark of just 48 with Finley Marsh up top that day. Ran a couple more times on AW and then followed ap, again at Wolvs, this time from a mark of 59 in a 0-60 race, Marsh up top again.
In April they gave this one a shot at Turf and she ran in a 5f 0-70 at bath from a mark of 60. Only beaten 2.8l into 5th that day. Then back to Lingfield and weakened over a 6f trip. Then last time out, back to bath, 5.5f 0-70 and went down just 1.7l that time in 4th place, running on well to the line.
Gets in here from a mark of 58. Has run two nice races now over track and trip, each time showing a little improvement, this time drops into a 0-60, so should not need to show much more to go very close in this one.
Avg OR from 2nd last race at track and trip was 62, last time it was 65. Tomorrow it is 55. Easier race, ok with track and trip, switch back to regular jockey.
The price seems fair for the chance.
Speed Figure Picks
15:40 Musselburgh - Amidst The Chaos @ 3.0 Win Bet
16:15 Musselburgh - Lion's House @ 17.0 - 3 places e/w