Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Friday
Sorry this email is late going out, was not home yesterday so was not able to get it written up as prices went live.
Eventually I would like to move to on-the-day emails anyway. Prices should be more stable doing it that way and accounts should last longer.
Once again we smashed the value yesterday and got no reward for it … such is life. We will have another go today.
Good luck if you play along.
Repeat Performance
8.40 Bev - Sunny Orange @ 9.5 - 4 places - paddy
This one is a bit of a track specialist … under certain circumstances.
He has 17 runs at the track and has won 4 and been placed here 7 times. The good to firm ground is his preference and he should get that tomorrow.
In class 6 races the horse has also ran 17 times and won 4 and places 7 times … however when we combine the stats.
Beverley - Class 6 - his last five runs show : Won, Won, Won, 2nd (head), Won.
The horse has his conditions tomorrow and we should be getting a run for our money. It is available at 11.0 right now on 365 with 3 places and sky and paddy are offering 4 places at odds of 9.5 and 9.0.
I simply cannot refuse to play this one at the price on offer for a horse that won this same race last year.
Track Specialist
7.02 Bev - Elegant Erin @ 5.5+ win bet
Lifetime has 10 wins from 62 runs. 9 of those 10 wins have been over the minimum trip of 5f. At this course and distance the horse is 5 from 9.
She has a very erratic history. Inside the last 12 months she has run in class 4 races 4 times and has run in listed races twice.
In September last year the horse ran twice at Beverley, winning a class 4 from a mark of 82, then following up by winning a class 2 from the same mark just a week later.
Her next race saw her run 4th in a listed event at Ascot beaten less than a length that day .. her was OR raised to 95 off the back of those three runs.
She has run down the field a few times since then, but showed a little return to form last time out in a class 4 at Nottingham from a mark of 87 running on all the way to the line.
This is the first time back to Beverley since then. Gets in here from a mark of 86 and is more than capable of winning this if she is here to be competitive.
Price seems about right, we are a little late and the early value is gone (365 still hanging odds of 6.5, that is great value)
Speed Figure Picks
17:15 Sandown - Triple Double A (currently 4.0 in a couple of places)
We missed the early value on this one, the horse was tipped up elsewhere and odds were cut from 7.0 into 4.0. Exchanges at the time of writing are showing a little longer, so shop around for value. I would want at least 4.0 or above on this one.
Tactical Pace Setup: The race shape is optimal. The pace map confirms a very strong early tempo. Special Ghaiyyath (Stall 10) must expend significant early energy to cross over and lead, allowing Triple Double A (Stall 5) to save ground in a perfect tracking pocket before launching a late challenge.
Ground Suitability: Today's Good to Firm ground is exactly what his engine requires. His extended form reveals his career-peak speed ratings and his entire 3yo winning streak were all achieved on fast turf, while his performance is not nearly as convincing on Soft ground
Connection Form: Jockey Billy Loughnane is in exceptional current form, boasting a 23% win rate and a massive 51% place rate over the last 14 days, pairing with a stable (Hugo Palmer) operating at a healthy 19% strike rate.
17:43 Chepstow - Aspull @ 8.5 most books
Tactical Pace Setup: He secures a massive tactical advantage as the absolute lone front-runner in the race. Sectionals show his main market rival, Supreme King, defaults to a tracking style, meaning Aspull can easily claim an uncontested lead from Stall 3 on a track that boasts a dominant 33.33% win rate for front-runners.
Ground Suitability: Returning to 7 furlongs on Good to Firm turf perfectly replicates the exact physical conditions of his speed figure performances. His recent blowout over a mile was purely a stamina issue; dropping back in trip on fast ground unlocks his peak ability.
Connection Form: Trainer Clive Cox targets Chepstow with remarkable precision, bringing a spectacular 60% win rate (3 winners from 5 runners) and an 80% place rate at the track over the last year, alongside a red-hot 25% overall stable strike rate over the last fortnight. Meanwhile, Supreme King's yard is completely out of form with a 0% win rate over the last 14 days (20 runners).
This one should be much shorter (I value it around 6.0) , unfortunately we are unable to bet each way as the number of runners mean the books are only paying 2 places, so we will go for a win bet on this one. Currently priced at 10. with 365 and 8.5 in most places elsewhere.
Others worth mentioning. Not going to track this as a bet, but one that caught my eye.
7.53 Chepstow, Star Material. @ 10/1
The horse profile shows that they think a lot of this 3yo Colt.
At 2yo the horse won a novice class 5 race at Ripon and was then entered for the Group two Norfolk Stakes race at Ascot a couple of weeks later. He finished last.
He then ran 2.5l second in a class 2 hcap nursery race at Ayr from a mark of 85. and was then put into a Listed race at York, once again finishing down the field.
At 4yo the horse has had two runs in class 3 handicap races, both around the 0-90 level, finished around 5l down in the first and about 3.5l down in his last race at Chester.
Drops into a 0-80 class 4 here tomorrow, and to be honest this may be more his level.
Still not gelded, so they may be hoping for black type, but the horse has not shown anything to indicate he is at that level, this might be more his speed and the price is interesting. Will be watching with interest.