Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Thursday.
That is month one in the books. Excuse the indulgence, while i look back a little … if you just want the bet for tomorrow, scroll down.
Asked AI to give me a summary of my monthly stats.
+3.4pts profit.
Not fantastic, but I know plenty that struggled this month, So I will take it and move on.
As this was my first month posting I have already made some changes, the jockey/trainer stats are no longer used in the emails, they go onto twitter instead.
I may well stick with the each-way plays as it looks as though there is value to be had there.
I am looking to add the “Hot Race” stats and also the Each-Way profile horse selections to the emails and take out the ones that have not been performing.
Overall, happy enough that it was a winning month … I think we did enough to prove the concept works and to power on through month two, I am going to do a little more digging and compare betfair SP’s v advised odds v SP and see exactly what value we have been grabbing by betting the night before.
Ideally i would like to put the email out the day of racing so that more people can get the odds. Or go Betfair SP would be even better. We will have a look and see where we land on that though.
Key Takeaways
Speed Figure is the Star Performer: The Speed Figure selection method was the only profitable angle this month, generating an exceptional +24.23 pts profit (53.83% ROI)
Each Way Bets Added Value Overall: Your original strategy finished the month in profit (+3.40 pts), whereas the flat 1pt win strategy would have broken even exactly (0.00 pts). This indicates that the place protection on your each-way selections was valuable in preserving capital across the month.
Performance Summary Table
Below is the complete breakdown by selection method and overall totals.
Method | Bets | Winners | Profit/Loss | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Speed Figure | 45 | 7 | +24.23 pts | +53.83% |
Drop In Class | 20 | 2 | -5.56 pts | -28.53% |
Repeat Performance | 11 | 1 | -2.16 pts | -19.66% |
Track Specialist | 5 | 1 | -1.50 pts | -30.00% |
Profile Horse | 4 | 0 | -4.00 pts | -100.00% |
Jockey/Trainer Stats | 9 | 0 | -7.60 pts | -84.44% |
Overall Total | 94 | 11 | +3.40 pts | +3.64% |
Analysis & Strategy Insights
Each Way vs. Win Only on Speed Figures: For the Speed Figure method, the Each Way strategy out-performed the 1pt Win strategy by +5.73 pts. This shows that when your Speed Figure selections didn't win, they hit the frame frequently enough at good odds (e.g., Everyoneknowsadave at 8.5, Primo Lara at 12.0, and Reginald Charles at 17.0) to boost your overall returns significantly beyond a win-only approach.
Drop In Class Damage Control: For Drop In Class, switching to a 1pt Win strategy would have actually reduced your losses from -5.56 pts to -2.00 pts. This suggests that the place terms on these specific runners did not offer enough value to cover the extra 0.5pt stake.
Top Winning Highlights: Your top-performing selections that drove the month's profitability included:
Damascus Steel (Speed Figure, E/W) — Won at advised odds of 23/1 (+13.20 pts profit)
Antiquity (Speed Figure, Win) — Won at advised odds of 9/1 (+8.00 pts profit)
Solar Acclaim (Speed Figure, E/W) — Won at advised odds of 11/1 (+6.25 pts profit)
Ok, enough about me, lets move on and look at Thursdays racing. Not too much to aim at to be honest.
Had looked close at Faustus on the 9.00 Newbury as a “Repeat Performance” horse, but there were enough negatives to leave that one alone. Had the price been bigger I may have taken a chance.
I also looked closely at Campani in the 4.50 Yarmouth, but again, they opened very short on that one, So a no bet race for me.
Just the one selection in the “Speed Figure” selection method.
Short, but seems solid.
We did have another speed figure horse to look at, 20:00 Newbury: Commander Of Life, passed all of the checks and balances, but could not get over the trainer form , her last winner was Early December .. and she has had 106 runners since them without one getting a head in front.
Enough to put me off unfortunately as all of the other filters in the process were good and 365 opened at 12/1.
Speed Figure Picks
17:25 Yarmouth: Federal Envoy @ 3.75 - win bet
Drawn inside in Stall 3, he should get the perfect prominent tow from the lone speed horse, Dion Baker, who is drawn just outside him in Stall 5.
Federal Envoy’s sectionals prove he can stalk efficiently and finish with a strong kick over 7 furlongs. Conversely, Dion Baker’s course-and-distance data reveals a brittle finishing speed, which suggests he may tire in the final two furlongs. The main danger, Jungle Knight, seems to lack the engine to match Federal Envoy's late kick.
While the selections absolute peak ratings were on the All-Weather, his recent race at Ripon proves he handles Good turf perfectly well.
The connections are on fire. Trainer Charlie Clover is operating at a 22% strike rate over the last 14 days, and jockey Marco Ghiani is riding at a blistering 36% win rate over the same period.