Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Wednesday
Nice winner for us yesterday with Antiquity, advised at 9.0 as a win bet, went off at 12.5 Betfair SP and executed the plan perfectly.
Will have the full month profit/loss with you tomorrow evening, in the meantime, one change I am going to make going forward, all of the selections I mention are now going to be calculated at 1pt win only.
You can still bet them however you want … but the win only bets are easier for me to keep track of, they are available in more places and they do give a slightly better overall return.
A word of caution, betting like this should only happen if you have the full 100 pt betting bank to support the longer losing runs. If you do not have a seperate betting bank for this email on its own, then please continue playing them each way where available, but going forward, I’m going to be on them win only.
Not too much out there to be honest for Weds, so we will ease into the new month with a couple of speculative punts on some decent value bets.
Repeat Performance
2.40 Thirsk - Mrs Trump @ 11.0
Won this race last year from a mark of 53, this year the race looks to be slightly easier than last.
Has run with Can Hardie up top the last three times, he seems to be the master of running a horse for an OR drop has a very low strike rate, and I think he goes after volume of rides rather than quality. I’m pretty sure the only reason most trainers use him is because he will be happy to turn, sit on top, and take the riders fee … Those last three runs have bought the horse a 7lb drop in OR .. so job done.
Mark Winn back up top is a big plus, the lack of Cam Hardie suggests that they have this one back to a mark where he can be competitive.
In the last two years 6f has been his go-to distance, back into a class 6 race from a mark he can be competitive at, with a jockey he likes on a track he has won at before.
All points to getting a run for our money.
Drops In Class
8.07 Epsom - Ricardo Phillips @ 13.0
A few runs in Maiden and novice races got this one an opening OR of 59 back in 2024. Never really showed much until the end of 24 / early 25, when mark had dropped down to 52 and connections started pushing him up in distance to 1m4f.
Had 5 runs in a row where the horse finished within 2 lengths of the winner. Last time we saw him was in Nov of 25 when he went down 1.3l in third in a 0-65 race over 1m4f at Kempton.
Seems to have grown into his racing and was better at four than he was at three.
Goes into a very low grade 0-55 here tomorrow for seasonal debut, At those odds i’m willing to take a chance on more improvement and despite the 8 months off track … we may get a decent run in this rock bottom handicap.