Welcome to MarkYourCard for racing on Monday.
Morning all, not much luck on Saturday, we did beat the price on most of the selections and were unlucky with one or two, but things did not go our way. Gave a little bit back to the bookies.
We have a couple of big prices running for us on Sunday, so hopefully one of them hits. At the prices we are playing, we only need one to pay for the day or to be well in profit.
Having a quick look at what we have today. Eternal Sunshine 18/1 into 7/1, Muker 33/1 into 16’s are the two that have been backed.
The rest of the week looks like run of the mill mid to lower grade racing, which to be honest is the type I like to bet into.
Friday we are hit with the Oaks at Epsom, Goodwood and Doncaster provide a backdrop to the main event and Musselburgh and Thirsk round out our bread and butter class 4-6 handicap races. Looks like it wil be all hands on deck with plenty to get stuck into.
In the meantime. From Monday I will start giving a breakdown of profit and loss to both Advised odds and also to betfair SP, i will also try and do a breakdown for each category of bet that we have :
Jockey/Trainer stats
Repeat Performance
Drop In Class
Profile Horses
Speed Figure picks
I will also be starting a telegram chat for those that have asked. Though we will need to grow a little more before I open it up, else it’ll just me me in there talking shit to myself.
Monday I’m struggling to isolate anything much. All of the angles I usually look at are throwing up horses, but then I am unable to make a strong case for most of them. Have a couple picked out and will start there for the first day of the month.
Staking
Remember, 1pt win on all bets or 0.5pts e/w unless otherwise advised.
100pt betting bank required. Lets make some money. Good luck if you play along.
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Repeat Performance
The only possible is
6.30 - Wolverhampton - Romantic Spirit @ 11.00 e/w 3 pl 365
At first glance I was going to discard as I could not discount a couple of the others, namely Phaedra and Wave Rock. A deeper look into the numbers however and I was drawn back to the positives on Romantic Spirit and decided to wait for the books to price up to see if it shows value.
The Selection has a rock solid profile with 6 runs, 3 wins, and 5 places at track and trip. All of those coming at this class 5 grade.
Neither of the dangers can get close to that level of performance or consistency. Phedra has never won at the track (nor on all weather) and is only 1 from 11 at the grade.
Wave Rock has won trice at track and trip and has Oisin Murphy up top to help him along, however has never won above class 6, and is plenty short enough.
Imola is the other at the head of the market, this one has also never won a class 5 race and will need to improve.
So .. we are back with Romantic Spirit. Proven at track, proven over this distance, proven in class 5, and winner of this race last year. Last win was from this mark at Southwell a few runs ago and the jockey has ridden the horse 5 times now (one win with the horse)
All signs are good.
Drops In Class
2.07 Lingfield - Buy The Dip @ 6.0 4 places e/w 365
Won 2lto over track and trip from a mark of 60 in a 0-65 under a front running ride by tomorrows jockey and 3lb claimer Luke Catton.
Last time out bumped into a class 4 0-80 under Pat Cosgrave and was not able to compete at that level.
Back down in grade here to 0-65 class 6, Catton bak up.
At the track the horse has 10 runs, 4 wins and 5 places.
In class 6 races the horse has 12 runs, 6 wins, 10 places.
Jockey has ridden for 3 wins and been up top the last two times the horse has won.
Stall 3 should give us the ability to get the lead early and press home on the turn. They may have trouble pegging us back.
Speed Figure Picks
Have had a couple of people ask how I personally stake these bets.
I do them at half the value of the main bets …
If my 1pt bet = £10.
I would have £10 win or £5 e/w on the main bets, then i would be doing £5 win or £2.50 e/w on these.
Either way - be consistent.
For the purpose of tracking i will do doing everything at 1pt or 0.5pt e/w bets
14:42 - Lingfield - Chasing Gold @ 6.5 ew 3 pl 365
14:50 - Newbury - Noodle Mission @ 29.0 ew 4 pl 365
16:00 - Newbury - Unico @ 23.0 ew 3pl 365
17:00 - Lingfield - Rogue Dynasty @ 4.0 365 win bet
20:45 - Windsor - Grey Fox @ 7.5 ew 3pl 365